Horse racing tips: This 16-1 chance won this race a year ago and returns from just a 3lb higher mark

Sent off 10/3 favourite for the November edition, he was never put into the race; but he did run a little better in the October variant, finishing a place and four lengths behind Minella Indo. This has obviously been the plan all season but I’m not at all sure he can bring his A game when water wings are needed. There is little doubt in anyone’s mind that, prior to the 2024 Cheltenham Festival, Ballyburn brings the best novice form.

Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap Trends

He’s highly respected but not as much as Elliott’s dominance – as well as six from seven winners since 2017, he’s also saddled four of the second placed horses, a quite phenomenal record. Choosing between his entries is not easy and Delta Work might well be the one. But I’ve been drawn to Coko Beach, still relatively young at nine and in the form of his life.

NB – Second best selection of the day

One group of runners to avoid in Grade 1 races seems to be those that ran relatively modestly or poorly last time out. Horses that finished 5th or worse on their prep run have accounted for just eight winners from 282 runners (SR 2.8%) for a hefty BSP loss of £129.01 (ROI -45.8%). Meanwhile, last day winners have secured 141 wins from 1200 runners (SR 11.8%). They, too, made a loss but nowhere near as severe, at -£50.53 (ROI -4.2%). The last decade has seen a notable uptick in performance which mirrors the type of pattern we saw earlier in terms of the increasing number of Irish runners that have started clear favourite. In that favourite data, the years 2008 to 2012 saw the smallest market leader numbers by some margin.

Robin Goodfellow’s racing tips: Best bets for Wednesday, April 20

• Yesterday’s blog underlined why having a clear line on true value is so important in successful long term professional backing.
• And with Enable making her long-awaited return in the Coral-Eclipse on Sunday, the stage is set for a sporting showdown to savour.
• Below is the same information but with the key metrics ranked, e.g.
• Horses that finished 5th or worse on their prep run have accounted for just eight winners from 282 runners (SR 2.8%) for a hefty BSP loss of £129.01 (ROI -45.8%).
• 33/1 Veneer of Charm wins well to make it a treble in the afternoon for Gordon Elliot.
• She jumped very well in France and was picked up for powerful connections.
• Trainer Charlie Longsdon is bullish about his chance and, on the evidence of the book, he’s a place possible at least…

A race most remembered for Badsworth Boy’s hat-trick of victories from 1982, a big win for this author with Azertyuiop in 2004, Master Minded’s double and the thrilling return of Sprinter Sacre two years ago. The King of May ran a cracker on his first run in this country when a staying on third in a hot race at Musselburgh and can take advantage of a decent mark, especially as this stiffer track will suit. Eragon De Chanay makes a quick reappearance after scooting up at Sandown last Saturday and would assuredly have had more than a 5lb penalty is the Handicapper had been in possession of that form when framing these weights. Fakenham had to abandon their meeting a few weeks ago after the opening race due to unsafe ground, they return to action on Wednesday with extensive course changes. We also have the season finale meeting at Newton Abbot, another who have experienced past problems with the conditions. The current going is Heavy which should improve given the favourable forecast.

• In comparison Fly Camp, also making his handicap debut, looks on a high mark on form achieved.
• Of course, he’s a novice and the fences have to be jumped, so that’s a possible issue.
• Much has been made of the wind operation that prevented him returning to racecourse action until Newbury last month, but it was a minor procedure that he underwent.
• All of the last 14 winners had finished top 3 on their last start (when completing).
• Over the years, the vastly experienced member of the weighing room has been Ireland’s champion jockey on three occasions.
• While she’s the clear favourite and the most likely winner, stepping up to 2m 4f poses a question mark on her stamina.
• It’s worth recalling that she was a Grade 1 winner over hurdles at Aintree last April, and it’s typical of Lucinda Russell’s horses to only show their very best form in the spring.
• But a top priced 8/11, whilst still very far from offensive in value terms, is unexciting for those of us with limited elevens to risk in the pursuit of eights.
• In the last twelve years, every winner of this race was either a single figure price (five winners) or 25/1+ (seven).
• Strike rates are below what is the 14/1+ norm for all National Hunt races and losses have been significant.

Cheltenham Tips

• I just feel that, if Edwardstone also goes forward, and with any or all of Jonbon, Elixir De Nutz, Funambule Sivola and El Fabiolo snapping at his heels, he’s going to be vulnerable in the last quarter of the race.
• There are plenty of top class efforts in that sequence, a positive which has to be balanced against the busy campaign; that said, she’s had only the one run in 2022.
• The five-timer-seeking Caius Chorister is worth throwing into the melting pot, in company with Night Of Luxury and Sheer Rocks.
• Whether this horse with racing has got quicker and so maybe coming back in trip might be what we need to be looking at.
• In any case, he looks a little way behind peak showings from the other pair mentioned so far.

Well, why aren’t they running in that race then, I hear (one of) you cry! The answer, of course, is trajectory; and that is the byword for attempting to solve this wagering puzzle. Cast back to 2020, and a six-year-old Epatante was winning the Blue Riband while forty minutes later Honeysuckle, also six, was winning this race.

• If you are looking to place a bet on this race well in advance of the actual running, then there may be an ante-post market available for you to place your bet.
• And Matt Tombs in his excellent matchbook content added that five of the 14 runners to start with a chase rating 7lb+ lower than their hurdle mark managed to win in the last 13 renewals.
• Marie’s Rock had recently run third in a mares’ Grade 2 at Doncaster and Love Envoi was about to win a Wexford bumper on her first start.
• 13 of the last 14 winners ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race last time out.
• He will need to settle but if he does, he can be ahead of his mark.
• Here are the Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap past winners for the last 10 renewals.
• Supplementing free horse racing tips with personal research can enhance your betting decisions.
• Of the rest, Rumstar has run some big races in top handicaps and has every chance of outrunning his insulting odds.

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The one who might still be a little on the fat side is Minella Indo. 20/1 bar these, the first of which is Champ, now ten and last seen winning well in a Grade 1 hurdle. His last chase sighting was when pulling up after only six fences in the Gold Cup a year ago. Connections are publicly pointing towards this gig but I wonder if he might go t’other way in a very open looking and winnable Stayers’ Hurdle section. A test as unique as the Cheltenham Gold Cup makes it something of a specialist’s race. Best Mate famously reeled off a hat-trick of wins early in the century and, since then, both Kauto Star and Al Boum Photo have doubled up.

Starting Price

That race tempo looks a reasonable fit against today’s likely setup and, what’s more, the horse in question, Tropez Power, won it – over today’s course and distance and in today’s class. He’s a dual winner from four starts on all-weather and, in between those wins, he again showed good acceleration to close from 3 3/4 lengths behind to a length behind at the line in another similarly run race. No, the job here is to look at how the percentages within a going column change based on the number of previous wins on that going. This rises to a bit more than 12% for those with a single prior win on good ground and hovers around the same figure for runners who have twice won previously on good; it then drops a notable bit for triple good scorers. This doesn’t just work on all-weather or on turning tracks, by the way. Both Newmarket courses, for example, offer great advantage to front-runners over most trips up to about nine furlongs.

Horse Racing Tips: A 7/2 nap tops our trader’s Friday night fancies at the Breeders’ Cup

Embassy Gardens, like Corbett’s Cross, was a big fancy (ante-post favourite) for the Albert Bartlett 12 months ago, but pulled up before running down the field at Punchestown. As such, he’s short enough to be backing at current odds. Mention this in hushed tones, but is it possible that this year’s Irish cohort are not as good as normal?

Northfields Handicap Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Irish Champions Weekend)

The British handicapper seems not to be on the same page with his European counterparts, ranking Irish form more highly and French form lower. On that basis, it’s easy enough to bypass Gaelic Warrior at such cramped odds and I don’t really want to be with The Tide Turns at not much bigger, though naturally I respect the chance of both. Burning Victory was the beneficiary of Goshen’s black swan event at the last in the Triumph Hurdle of 2020 and she’s travelled all over the place since. Specifically, she’s taken in the Galway Hurdle (7th), a Deauville handicap (1st), the Cesarewitch (2nd), a Navan handicap hurdle (tailed off), the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle (3rd) and that defeat of Queen’s Brook last time.

Durbanville Tips

Losses have been steepest in Grade 1 contests with your £1 bet returning on average 79p (loss of 21p in the £). Horses that won a Grade 1 contest LTO have scored close to one race in every four which is impressive. Backing all runners would have yielded a good profit also of over 22p in the £. Horses winning LTO in either Grade 2, 3 or Listed company have very similar strike rates, but it is Listed LTO winners who have created the best profit (£49.48 returning 41p in the £). We will examine Irish trainers versus UK trainers in more detail later, but Irish-trained clear favourites have done well.

Evocative Spark

Get Your Tips Out’s comprehensive coverage extends to global races, including Dubai, enabling punters to access insights on a broad spectrum of events and enhancing their betting strategies with diverse market knowledge. By considering such expert tips and a variety of opinions, punters can navigate through the complexities of horse racing and increase their chances of winning. A 3lb penalty for that success leaves Eilean Dubh 2lb well in according to the British Horseracing Authority handicapper’s maths, and a draw in stall six is another aid to his chance. In one of the trickiest betting races of the week, Noble Dynasty has to make the short-list, along with Jimi Hendrix, Sinjaari and Lawful Command. MAKE MY DAY is the choice to improve on his record of a win and a second from two visits to Goodwood. Successful in spells with John Gosden and Ralph Beckett, the son of Galileo was off the track for 511 days before making the frame twice from three attempts over hurdles.

Decent day of racing ahead with three Grade 2, one Grade 3 and a listed races from Newbury and Warwick this afternoon. Plus we have Uttoxeter  who are subject to a third inspection. With form horses Coo Star Sivola and Global Stage having disappointed on their latest starts – a difficult race to assess. Theatre Guide is expected to go well in a race he won last year.

Horse Racing Tips: A 7/1 NAP tops our best Kempton bets tonight

Place a min £10 bet on Football on odds of min 1/2 (1.5), get £50 in Free Bet Builders. We are blessed with an excellent team of specialists and experts at OLBG. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Ayr Gold Cup Preview are at hand, Andy and James. They both work on the Horse racing tips team team looking after the tipsters and managing the tips settlement, whilst Bolts Up Daily also creating and managing all of the horse racing event previews for Flat Racing. Contributing to creating and maintaining this Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap Preview are at hand, Andy and Darren. Sectional times can tell us how fast horses finished their races; importantly, they also tell us the overall race context in which the finishing time was achieved.

Skybet are paying EIGHT places on this race, and a couple of others are seven places deep. That gives us plenty of chances and the first name on the team sheet is Corach Rambler, whose run style lends itself to hitting the frame even without extended places! I’m slightly on weather watch with Oscar Elite, very much liking his chance on good to soft but less keen on softer.

Tiger Roll wins the Cross Country Chase

And, of course, that’s absolutely fine because – remember – the number one takeaway from these million words is, Choose Your Battles. Play where you know most, and where you’re as comfortable as possible with what you don’t know. Like which trainers, and which of their horses, might leap forward on handicap bow. Even at relatively short odds of 7/2, there may be a losing run of 27 or 28 bets in a 1000 race sample; so we have to be set up, emotionally and financially, to deal with that. Betting is fun, perhaps more so on horses than most other sports because of the speed with which the result is known; that rapid production of endorphins induced by the short duration of a race compared with, say, a football match. This doesn’t look to be the deepest Novice hurdle so UNIVERSAL DAVE may well be able to shoulder a penalty and land a second career success.

You can also place single bets from the Bet Slip – just click the price in the Bet Slip. Amber Cottage, Cheltenham A cosy, semi-detached, holiday home built in traditional, honey-coloured Cotswold stone made even more fantastic thanks to shared facilities including an outdoor swimming pool. This special spot was also once part of the stables to a once neighbouring 18th-century coaching inn, with evidence of this time still seen in the cottage’s ancient, exposed beams. The area surrounding Cheltenham racecourse is one of idyllic beauty thanks to undulating hills, wild woodland and babbling streams. Cleeve Hill for example, where the Gold Cup originated, is the highest point both of the Cotswolds hill range and in Gloucestershire.